Haio

Haio another diving stock
March 2010 - 4.50
Sep 2011 - 1.50
67% value evaporated within 18 months. the interesting question is why?

Financial Summary

Date	Stock	Quarter	Year End	Current Year Quarter				Current Year To Date
				Revenue (RM'000)	P/L (RM'000)	EPS (sen)	Dividend (sen)	Revenue (RM'000)	P/L (RM'000)
21 Dec 2011	HAIO	2nd	30 Apr 2012	56,199	7,868	3.94	2.00	107,172	15,601
28 Sep 2011	HAIO	1st	30 Apr 2012	50,973	7,734	3.87	-	50,973	7,734
23 Jun 2011	HAIO	4th	30 Apr 2011	58,156	8,547	4.28	5.50	223,150	28,829
23 Mar 2011	HAIO	3rd	30 Apr 2011	57,621	6,347	3.18	-	164,994	20,283
17 Dec 2010	HAIO	2nd	30 Apr 2011	52,622	6,132	3.07	2.00	107,374	13,935
29 Sep 2010	HAIO	1st	30 Apr 2011	54,751	7,804	3.91	-	54,751	7,804
25 Jun 2010	HAIO	4th	30 Apr 2010	98,838	14,257	7.14	14.50	511,064	70,916
19 Mar 2010	HAIO	3rd	30 Apr 2010	131,281	18,009	21.64	4.00	412,227	56,659

FYE 4/2011 revenue down 50% (511 mil to 223mil) PAT down 59% (71 mil to 29 mil) - value destruction.
Cumulative 2 lastest quarters, revenue - 107mil PAT 15mil.
Annualised FYE 4/2012, revenue - 214mil PAT 30 mil.
FYE2012 results will be slightly better than FYE2011.

Changes In Shareholder

Date	Stock	Name	Type	Qty
11 Aug 2011	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	21,900
11 Aug 2011	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	21,900
11 Aug 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	21,900
11 Aug 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	21,900
11 Aug 2011	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	21,900
4 Jul 2011	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	33,500
4 Jul 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	33,500
4 Jul 2011	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	33,500
4 Jul 2011	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	33,500
4 Jul 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	33,500
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	AKINTAN SDN BHD	Acquired	40,100
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	40,100
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	40,100
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	40,100
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	40,100
31 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	40,100
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	AKINTAN SDN BHD	Acquired	40,400
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	40,400
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	40,400
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	40,400
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	40,400
26 Jan 2011	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	40,400
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	AKINTAN SDN BHD	Acquired	41,000
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	41,000
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	41,000
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	41,000
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	41,000
30 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	41,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	AKINTAN SDN BHD	Acquired	50,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KENG KANG	Acquired	50,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	PHAN VAN DENH	Acquired	50,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN SIOW ENG	Acquired	50,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KAI HEE	Acquired	50,000
24 Dec 2010	HAIO	TAN KENG SONG	Acquired	50,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Phan Van Denh	Acquired	118,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Tan Keng Kang	Acquired	118,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Tan Siow Eng	Acquired	118,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Tan Keng Song	Acquired	118,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Tan Kai Hee	Acquired	118,000
5 Oct 2010	HAIO	Akintan Sdn Bhd	Acquired	118,000
25 Aug 2010	HAIO	Quek Ah Ba	Disposed	40,704
9 Aug 2010	HAIO	Datin Sunita Mei-Lin Rajakumar	Disposed	33,500
28 Jul 2010	HAIO	Datin Sunita Mei-Lin Rajakumar	Disposed	33,500
19 Jul 2010	HAIO	Datin Sunita Mei-Lin Rajakumar	Transferred	100,636

Insider move
From the list above, insiders including Tan Kai Hee has been net buyer for the last one year.

Shares Buy Back

Date	Stock	Shares Acquired (Cancelled)
6 Jan 2012	HAIO	2,000
5 Jan 2012	HAIO	3,000
4 Jan 2012	HAIO	2,400
3 Jan 2012	HAIO	3,400
30 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,800
29 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,700
28 Dec 2011	HAIO	3,600
22 Dec 2011	HAIO	1,000
21 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,600
20 Dec 2011	HAIO	4,800
19 Dec 2011	HAIO	7,300
16 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,400
15 Dec 2011	HAIO	3,600
14 Dec 2011	HAIO	4,400
13 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,400
9 Dec 2011	HAIO	3,400
8 Dec 2011	HAIO	2,100
7 Dec 2011	HAIO	4,600
6 Dec 2011	HAIO	4,000
5 Dec 2011	HAIO	4,000
2 Dec 2011	HAIO	10,200
2 Dec 2011	HAIO	7,000
1 Dec 2011	HAIO	7,000
30 Nov 2011	HAIO	1,300
29 Nov 2011	HAIO	4,000
25 Nov 2011	HAIO	8,500
24 Nov 2011	HAIO	2,500
23 Nov 2011	HAIO	4,900
22 Nov 2011	HAIO	11,100
21 Nov 2011	HAIO	5,200
18 Nov 2011	HAIO	2,600
17 Nov 2011	HAIO	2,200
25 Oct 2011	HAIO	2,500
24 Oct 2011	HAIO	2,200
7 Oct 2011	HAIO	1,400
6 Oct 2011	HAIO	2,600
5 Oct 2011	HAIO	2,100
4 Oct 2011	HAIO	3,400
3 Oct 2011	HAIO	10,000
30 Sep 2011	HAIO	3,000
29 Sep 2011	HAIO	5,000
22 Sep 2011	HAIO	12,400
21 Sep 2011	HAIO	4,800
20 Sep 2011	HAIO	8,600
19 Sep 2011	HAIO	3,200
15 Sep 2011	HAIO	3,400
14 Sep 2011	HAIO	21,900
13 Sep 2011	HAIO	5,000
12 Sep 2011	HAIO	8,700
9 Sep 2011	HAIO	2,700

The Company has implemented share buy back scheme although effect may be negligible.

Fundamental Observation:

1. Profitability is improving

2. Consumerism sector remain a core pillar in country wealth creation – a main contributor to GDP in recent quarters.

3. Insider moving back to the stock

4. Share buy back.

TA Observation:

1. The stock bottom in Oct 2011

2. Making a 20% gain by end of Oct 2011

3. Flattening for next 2 – 3 months til Dec 2011.

4. Price and volume move again in Jan 2012 – the engine is ignited and the long night happening party began.

5. NOW: The stock is overbought now and facing a resistance at 2.40 level – profit taking began

6. A Dark Cloud Cover emerged on 19/1/2012 – signify the beginning of distribution.

Action:

Wait for retracement to MA50/100 to accumulate.

KNM

KNM has been in down trend for a year already.
RM3.2 in Jan 2011 to 80 sen in Dec 2011. 75% of value evaporated.

Revenue (RM'000)

P/L (RM'000)

22 Nov 2011

KNM

3rd

31 Dec 2011

445,185

(116,295)

22 Aug 2011

KNM

2nd

31 Dec 2011

544,300

10,855

26 May 2011

KNM

1st

31 Dec 2011

413,000

19,017

23 Feb 2011

KNM

4th

31 Dec 2010

384,233

20,631

24 Nov 2010

KNM

3rd

31 Dec 2010

418,359

56,094

30 Aug 2010

KNM

2nd

31 Dec 2010

383,210

14,144

25 May 2010

KNM

1st

31 Dec 2010

373,301

40,334

25 Feb 2010

KNM

4th

31 Dec 2009

398,609

(31,046)

Listed above is the quarterly revenue and PAT for the last two years until a huge one off provision surfaced that KNM was in huge loss - a staggering RM116 million loss. It is interesting that the last 6 qtrs, KNM has been making profit but its share price was diving for the last one year. It simply means, the insiders have been anticipating this one off provision to come. Has the stock bottom? we shall observe the insider movement thru price and volume movement.

Who has been disposing for the last one year?

Date	Stock	Name	Type	Qty
21-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	4,000,000
20-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,959,600
19-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	645,000
16-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,000,000
13-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	200,000
9-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,000,000
8-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,629,600
7-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	472,900
6-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,200,000
5-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	168,900
5-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	402,000
1-Dec-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,812,000
30-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,500,000
29-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,800,000
25-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	800,000
24-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	450,000
23-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	100,000
22-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	500,000
21-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	500,000
18-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	238,200
17-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	193,200
14-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	700,000
10-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	381,800
8-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	225,000
3-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	499,500
2-Nov-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	100,000
18-Oct-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	350,000
11-Oct-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	3,000,000
10-Oct-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,901,700
7-Oct-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	500,000
29-Sep-11	KNM	Gan Siew Liat	Acquired	267,100
29-Sep-11	KNM	Lee Swee Eng	Acquired	267,100
26-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,000,000
26-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,500,000
24-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	377,900
23-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	205,700
22-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	372,600
10-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	900,000
9-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	4,000,000
8-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	4,000,000
5-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,951,800
4-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	4,390,900
3-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	677,900
2-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	1,576,700
1-Aug-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,100,000
29-Jul-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	189,800
21-Jul-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	150,000
14-Jul-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	601,200
14-Jul-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	2,457,300
11-Jul-11	KNM	Employees Provident Fund Board	Disposed	167,300

The answer is EPF - the biggest culprit that managed my monthly contribution. EPF continued selling for the last six months. Selling pressure has eased. Take a closer look at the current movement since 21 Dec 2011.

What a coincidence the stock bottom on 22 Dec 2011. Obviously EPF has turned to become buyer but no announcement was made?

TA observations:
1. A reverse H&S is being formed. A breakout of 1.02 is imminent.
2. MA 10 crossed MA 20.
3. Strong support MA20
4. price move higher 18, 19 & 20 Jan together with increasing volume.

BUY

Blogging Activities

2008 - 3

2009 - 5
2010 - 5
2011 - 32
2012 - Target 100

Haha created this blog in Nov 2008, not knowing what to write. Manage to put 10 post in 2009 and 2010, what a joke. Honestly, is not a joke, i have been spending lots of time to reading all sorts of books about investment. You name it, technical analysis, candle sticks, property investment, stock investment, gold, commodity, oil price, global recession, great depression, fundamental analysis, warren buffet, trading system, silver, personal finance..................uncountable......really lost count already. i practically grab whatever books about finance that i could get in MPH. From taking a couple of months to finish one book to finish a book within couple of hours.

Personally, i was never someone like to read. Through out my life except studying text book examination, i hardly read any books outside academics. It is miracle that i have easily read thousand research reports, hundreds of articles, tens of books and couple of good blogs.

As Robert Kiyosaki teaching, we are not financially literate. May be not. i am successful personally in financial field as an employee. This employment earns me decent salary, but it is my sole source of income. Hence, creating another source of income is critical to ensure continuous cash flows.

Investing income and trading income will be my second source. In the meantime, i will continue to share my journey with you and to record my thoughts and ideas here.

As you see above, i have targeted to put up at least 100 posts in 2012. and it shall begin with this post.

KIMB Disposal - Follow up

Since Dec 20, Kurasia retraced to 55 sen low within a few days. It has since moving up an up till today but with retracing volume. Watching closely, the stock should break out at 61 sen level soon. Hold for the moment.