Take a look at the chart above, what do you think? Coincident or is planned? you make your own judgement. My only view is the that market movement in short run is heavily affected by the emotion and behaviour of the market participants. As it happended just three years ago, it adds weight on the higher probabilty it will happen again. The participants in 2008 and now are pretty much the same bunch. Imagine that these same bunch had made tremendous gain in 2009 - 2011 rally, will definately try to make the market fall in order to rake in another round of wind falls. Well, to fight this conspiration theory, you need a crowd of bulls to defy the bears. As we know market is bearish globally, the next question is, where is the long term source of bullishness. See the summary below. Hence, equity market remain an short term trading ground.
| Outlook |
Europe | Half dead |
US | Flattish at best |
China | Inflation, Property bubble, growing NPL, declining growth |
India | So far no bad news. But slow moving hard to be the prime mover |
Japan | Slow growth, earth quake |
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