·
Us
recovery and QE tapering is real, this could cause tail-spin in Malaysian capital
market but it is manageable.
·
Outflow
of capital is manageable will not create chaos
·
Fortunately,
Malaysia remain to have positive CA, ie we did not overspent when dollar is
cheap
·
India
and Indonesia have twin deficit ie fiscal and CA deficit
·
But
Malaysia’s pro-long fiscal deficit and high level of national debts (55% GDP) pose
a down-grade risk to the country
·
Malaysia
– a high saving nation
·
Malaysian
foreign currency denominated debts is low
·
BNM
forex reserve is also high ~ RM140B enough to cushion out flows of US30B
foreign investment in bond
·
Outflows
of foreign funds does not pose major threat to Malaysia
·
But
the local funds may exit the country if the confidence level slide down
·
Major
local funds are EPF, PNB and KWAP remain faithful to the country
·
But
private funds from HNI and corporate may move out the country
·
News
and sound bites that Malaysian is investing overseas properties
·
Political
stability should not be taken for granted. Country with stable politic outlook able
keep foreign investment longer.
·
On
overcoming corruption and strengthening transparency – to strengthen MACC and practice
amnesty – let the bygones be bygones.
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